Pronostic : TSG 1899 Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund (5 sept. 2026)

The TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund prediction for September 5th, 2026 is here. This Bundesliga match at PreZero Arena kicks off at 13:30 and Borussia Dortmund comes in as the clear favorite. Based on the latest odds, form and head-to-head stats, Dortmund has a 57% win probability, the draw sits at 25%, and Hoffenheim's chance is 18%.

Team form

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim has had a mixed run. Their last five results read L, W, D, L, W across all competitions. In the Bundesliga they lost 3-2 away to FC Koln on August 29, and in the DFB Pokal they beat Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 on August 22. Friendlies brought a 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur, a 3-0 loss to the same opponent, and a 3-0 home win over Karlsruher SC. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats - not the consistency you want when facing a top side.

Borussia Dortmund is in much better shape. Their last five: W, W, D, W, W. They crushed HEBC Hamburg Eimsbutteler 5-0 in the DFB Pokal on September 1st, opened their Bundesliga with a 2-0 home win over Hamburger SV on August 29, drew 2-2 with AS Roma, beat Arsenal FC 3-2 and beat Tokyo 1-0 in friendlies. Four wins and one draw, and only two goals conceded in the last three competitive games.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head between these teams is tight but favors Dortmund. In their last 31 meetings, Borussia Dortmund has 12 wins, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim has 6, and 13 ended as draws. The most recent match was April 18, 2026 - Hoffenheim won 2-1 at home. Before that, Dortmund won 2-0 at home on December 7, 2025. The last three Bundesliga H2H matches split one win each and a Dortmund away win in April 2025. So Hoffenheim can trouble Dortmund at home, but Dortmund's overall edge is clear.

League table positions

It is very early in the Bundesliga season with only one match played. Borussia Dortmund sits 5th with 3 points after a 2-0 win. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is 12th with 0 points following a 3-2 loss to FC Koln. Both have played only one league game, so the table is not yet a reliable guide, but the start favors Dortmund's momentum.

Win probability: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund?

The win probability calculation for this TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund prediction combines odds, recent form, head-to-head and home advantage. The bookmakers' pre-match odds average around 2.90 for a Hoffenheim win, 2.52 for the draw, and 2.33 for Dortmund. Using the inverse of these odds and normalizing, Dortmund gets a 57% chance to win, the draw is 25%, and Hoffenheim has an 18% shot. Dortmund's stronger recent form - four wins in five - and the head-to-head edge (12 wins to 6 overall) support the odds. Hoffenheim's home win in April shows they can compete, but the probability says Dortmund is the more likely winner.

Odds and match prediction

The pre-match 1X2 odds from several bookmakers show Dortmund as the favorite. The best available home win price is 3.05, the draw ranges from 2.42 to 2.70, and the away win is as low as 2.05. The betting market clearly leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Our TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is an away win based on the stats - Dortmund's form, the head-to-head record and the odds all point in that direction. A bet on Dortmund to win offers value around 2.05, while the draw at 2.50+ could interest those who note the 13 draws in this fixture's history. Hoffenheim at home is a riskier pick at 3.05 given their inconsistent start.