Pronostic : Arminia Bielefeld – FC St. Pauli (4 sept. 2026)

The Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli prediction for September 4, 2026 gives us a close Bundesliga 2 contest at Schüco Arena. Kick-off is set for 16:30. Based on the odds, team form, and head-to-head record, FC St. Pauli is a slight favorite with a 40% chance to win, Arminia Bielefeld sits at 34%, and the draw has a 26% probability.

Team form

Arminia Bielefeld's last five matches show L, D, W, L, D. Their most recent league outing was a 4-1 loss away at Nurnberg on August 29. Earlier they beat Energie Cottbus 3-0 at home on August 16, drew 2-2 in the DFB Pokal at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, and lost 2-1 at Karlsruher SC. FC St. Pauli's recent form reads L, L, D, D, D. On August 30 they lost 2-1 at home to Kaiserslautern, then lost 2-0 at Rot-Weiss Essen in the cup on August 23. Before that they drew 2-2 at Holstein Kiel and 1-1 at home against Greuther Furth.

Head-to-head record

The Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli head-to-head numbers show FC St. Pauli with 9 wins, Arminia Bielefeld 3 wins, and 3 draws in 15 meetings. The most recent clash was on April 29, 2023 when FC St. Pauli won 2-1 at home. Earlier, on October 22, 2022, Arminia Bielefeld won 2-0 at home. In December 2019 FC St. Pauli beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 twice, and a 1-1 draw happened in July 2019 in Bielefeld.

League table positions

Arminia Bielefeld is 10th in the Bundesliga 2 overall standings after 3 matches, with 3 points (1 win, 2 losses) and a goal difference of 5-6. At home they have a perfect record from one game: a 3-0 win over Energie Cottbus. FC St. Pauli are not in the overall top 12 with the data we have, but their away form is visible indirectly: they have drawn both Bundesliga 2 away games 2-2 and 1-1 so far. Arminia Bielefeld's home strength and FC St. Pauli's tendency to draw suggest a tight match.

Win probability: Arminia Bielefeld or FC St. Pauli?

We calculate the Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli win probability factoring in the odds from multiple bookmakers, current form, and the head-to-head record. The best available pre-match prices average out to roughly home 2.40, draw 2.35, away 3.10. After adjusting for the bookmaker margin, the implied chances are: Arminia Bielefeld win 34%, draw 26%, FC St. Pauli win 40%. The head-to-head edge for FC St. Pauli (9 wins vs 3) and the visitors' solid away draws lift their probability, but Arminia's lone home win and the home-advantage factor keep them close. The most likely single outcome is an away win for FC St. Pauli, though a draw is a strong possibility.

Odds and match prediction

The best pre-match odds for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli show multiple bookmaker lines: home win around 2.30-2.50, draw around 2.30-2.40, away win from 3.00 up to 3.25. The bookmakers see this as a very balanced fixture. Our Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli prediction sides with the slight away favorite: based on the stats, FC St. Pauli has a 40% chance to take all three points, but a draw at 26% and Bielefeld at 34% make any betting tips carry caution. The overall betting angle points to a low-scoring, tight game where the away side might edge it or share the points.