Pronostic : Renofa Yamaguchi – TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma (12 sept. 2026)

The Renofa Yamaguchi vs TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma prediction gives a clear edge to the home side. This J3 League match kicks off on Sep 12 at 10:00 at Ishin Me-Life Stadium in Yamaguchi. Based on recent form and head-to-head numbers, Renofa Yamaguchi has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma has a 24% chance.

Team form

Renofa Yamaguchi come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five matches read W, L, D, L, W. In their most recent outing they beat Gainare Tottori 3-0 away, which was a strong performance. Before that they lost 0-2 at home to Fujieda MYFC in the League Cup and drew 0-0 with FC Osaka. The home record in the league is solid: one win and one draw from two J3 League matches at Ishin Me-Life Stadium, with one goal scored and none conceded.

TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma are struggling for consistency. Their last five results are L, L, W, L, L. They lost 1-3 at home to Fukushima United FC and 1-2 at home to Albirex Niigata in the League Cup. The only win in that run was a 2-1 victory away at Nagano Parceiro. Away from home in the league they have one win and two losses, conceding seven goals in three away matches. That leaky defense is a big concern for this Renofa Yamaguchi vs TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma prediction.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is perfectly balanced. In nine previous meetings, Renofa Yamaguchi have four wins, TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma have four wins, and there has been one draw. The most recent clash was on Sep 23, 2023, when Renofa Yamaguchi won 1-0 at home. TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma won the two meetings before that, including a 2-1 home win in May 2023. Goals are usually on the menu: the last five head-to-head games produced 17 goals, an average of 3.4 per match. Renofa Yamaguchi have won three of the last five at home against TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma, which supports the home win angle in this Renofa Yamaguchi vs TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma prediction.

League table positions

Renofa Yamaguchi sit 8th in the J3 League overall standings with 7 points from 5 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). They have scored 5 goals and conceded 4. At home they are 7th with 4 points from 2 matches, keeping two clean sheets. TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma are not in the top 12 of the overall table, which means they are lower down the rankings. Their away form is also not listed among the top 8, pointing to a difficult season so far. The table gap gives Renofa Yamaguchi a clear advantage in this Renofa Yamaguchi vs TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma prediction.

Win probability: Renofa Yamaguchi or TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma?

We calculate the win probability for this match based on form, head-to-head record, league positions and home advantage. Renofa Yamaguchi have a 52% chance to win. The draw is at 24%, and TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma have a 24% chance of an away victory. The home team's solid defensive record at Ishin Me-Life Stadium, combined with the away side's poor defensive numbers on the road, tilts the balance. The head-to-head record is close, but Renofa Yamaguchi's recent home win in this fixture and their better league standing make them the more likely winner. These percentages are an estimate based on form and statistics rather than on bookmaker odds.

Odds and match prediction

No pre-match odds are available for this fixture at the moment. When bookmakers release their prices, Renofa Yamaguchi are expected to be the favorites. Our Renofa Yamaguchi vs TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma prediction is a home win. The betting tips point to a low-scoring affair given Renofa Yamaguchi's tight home defense, but the head-to-head history suggests goals could flow. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory looks the most likely outcome based on the stats. For total goals, the under 2.5 market could be worth a look if the odds are right, but always check the team news before placing any bet.