Pronostic : Ceara CE – Sport Recife PE (5 sept. 2026)

The Ceara CE vs Sport Recife PE prediction for September 5, 2026 is here. This Serie B match kicks off at 21:30 and the bookmakers see Ceara CE as the narrow favorite. Based on the odds, recent form and head-to-head record, Ceara CE has a 39% chance of winning, the draw is at 31%, and Sport Recife PE has a 30% chance.

Team form

Ceara CE come into this match with a mixed run: L, W, L, L, W in their last five. At home they beat Londrina PR 2-1 and Ponte Preta SP 2-0, but lost 1-3 to Cuiaba MT. Away from home they fell 0-2 at Vila Nova GO and 0-1 at Nautico PE. That is two wins and three losses in the last five, with both wins coming at home.

Sport Recife PE also show L, W, L, W, W in their last five. They won 3-0 at home against America Mineiro MG and 2-1 against Londrina PR, plus a 1-0 away win at Vila Nova GO. But they lost 1-2 at Gremio Novorizontino SP and 1-2 at Avai SC. Three wins and two losses in that spell, with the away form a bit patchy.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head between these two sides favors Ceara CE: 10 wins to Sport Recife PE's 6, with 6 draws. The most recent meeting was on May 3, 2026, when Sport Recife PE won 2-0 at home. Before that, in October 2025 they drew 1-1, and in July 2025 a 0-0 draw in the Copa do Nordeste. Ceara CE won the two earlier clashes - 2-0 at home in May 2025 and 2-1 at home in October 2023. Home advantage has been key in this fixture.

League table positions

In the overall Serie B standings, Sport Recife PE sit 8th with 38 points from 25 matches (9 wins, 11 draws, 5 losses). Ceara CE are not in the top 12 shown, which suggests they are lower in the table. Sport Recife PE have scored 33 goals and conceded 24. At home they rank 7th with 22 points from 13 games, losing only once. Away they rank 8th with 16 points from 12 games, with a balanced 4-4-4 record. The table gap gives Sport Recife PE a slight edge in consistency.

Win probability: Ceara CE or Sport Recife PE?

We calculate the win probability from the pre-match odds, adjusted by form and head-to-head stats. The average odds imply Ceara CE at around 2.21, the draw at 2.25, and Sport Recife PE at 3.51. After removing the bookmaker margin and weighting in the home/away factor and recent results, the true chances are: Ceara CE 39%, draw 31%, Sport Recife PE 30%. Ceara CE are the more likely winner, but this is a close contest and the draw is a real possibility.

Odds and match prediction

The pre-match odds for this fixture show Ceara CE as the favorite. The best home win price is 2.41, the draw is available at 3.17, and an away win for Sport Recife PE is priced at 3.38. Other bookmakers have the home win as low as 2.15 and the draw as low as 2.00. Our Ceara CE vs Sport Recife PE prediction: based on the stats, Ceara CE have the edge with home advantage and a strong head-to-head record at their own ground, but Sport Recife PE's solid away form means this could go either way. A low-scoring match is likely, and the draw is a value pick at the current odds.