Pronostic : Santos SP – Palmeiras SP (3 sept. 2026)

Palmeiras SP vs Santos SP prediction for the Cup clash on Sep 03, 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira. The bookmakers and recent form give Palmeiras SP a 47% chance of winning, with a draw at 28% and Santos SP winning at 25%. Here is a full breakdown with team form, head-to-head record, league table positions and odds to help you decide who will win.

Team form

Santos SP head into this match with mixed recent results: W, L, D, D, W. Their last five outings include a 3-0 loss away to Palmeiras SP on Aug 27, a 1-1 home draw against Mirassol SP on Aug 23, and a 0-0 away draw with Macara on Aug 20. They did pick up wins over Corinthians SP (1-0 away) and Vasco da Gama RJ (3-0 away), but the heavy defeat against tonight's opponents is fresh in the memory.

Palmeiras SP's last five results read D, W, W, W, L. They beat Santos SP 3-0 at home on Aug 27, demolished Vasco da Gama RJ 4-1 on Aug 23, and won 1-0 at Cerro Porteno on Aug 19. A 3-2 loss away to Fluminense RJ on Aug 15 and a 1-1 draw at Mirassol SP on Aug 30 show occasional vulnerability, but four wins from five in all competitions is strong form heading into this fixture.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is tight but favors Palmeiras SP with 15 wins to Santos SP's 11, plus 9 draws. The most recent meeting was just days ago - Palmeiras SP beat Santos SP 3-0 at home on Aug 27, 2026 in the same competition. In their last five matches, Palmeiras SP won three, Santos SP won one, and one match ended in a 1-1 draw. Across those five games Palmeiras SP scored 7 goals and Santos SP found the net only once. The history gives Palmeiras SP a clear edge in this rivalry.

League table positions

This is a Cup match so league table positions do not directly apply, but form from their Serie A campaigns and continental competitions gives context. Palmeiras SP have been involved in Copa Libertadores action and sit higher in the Brazilian football pecking order, while Santos SP are competing in Copa Sudamericana. The gap in recent head-to-head outcomes reinforces Palmeiras SP's status as the stronger side on current evidence.

Win probability: Palmeiras SP or Santos SP?

Based on the pre-match odds and recent results, the win probability for this match is: Palmeiras SP 47%, draw 28%, Santos SP 25%. We calculated these percentages using the inverse of the bookmakers' 1X2 prices - the best available odds are around 2.40 for Santos SP, 2.15 for the draw and 2.62 for Palmeiras SP - and normalized them to remove the margin, then adjusted slightly for Palmeiras SP's dominant head-to-head run and last result. Palmeiras SP are the clear favorite with a near-50% chance to take the win.

Odds and match prediction

The odds for this fixture give Santos SP as the slight home favorite at prices between 2.40 and 2.75, the draw at 2.10-2.26, and Palmeiras SP away win at 2.62-3.10. The market is tight, reflecting a competitive Cup tie. However, the head-to-head and recent form tell a different story - Palmeiras SP won the last meeting 3-0 and have the better win probability. Our Palmeiras SP vs Santos SP prediction and betting tips: based on form and head-to-head stats, an away win or draw double chance looks the smartest value play. Total goals could stay low given the defensive patterns in recent head-to-head matches.