Pronostic : Motor Lublin – Legia Warszawa (5 sept. 2026)

The Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa prediction for September 5, 2026 gives Legia Warszawa a 52% chance to win this Ekstraklasa match. The game kicks off at 18:15 at Arena Lublin. Based on the odds and recent form, the visitors are the favorites but Motor Lublin's home advantage makes this a tight contest.

Team form

Motor Lublin come into this match with a mixed record. Their last five results read W, L, D, W, L. They beat Legia Warszawa 3-0 in the Cup on September 1, lost 0-2 at home to Piast Gliwice, drew 1-1 at Korona Kielce, beat GKS Katowice 1-0, and lost 3-1 at Pogon Szczecin. That is two wins, one draw, and two defeats.

Legia Warszawa's recent form is L, D, D, W, D. They lost that Cup tie 3-0 at Motor Lublin, drew 1-1 at home with Slask Wroclaw, drew 1-1 at Piast Gliwice, thrashed Radomiak Radom 5-0 at home, and drew 1-1 at Korona Kielce. One win, three draws, and one loss shows they are hard to beat but not always winning.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these teams shows 1 Motor Lublin win, 2 draws, and 3 Legia Warszawa wins from six meetings. The most recent clash was just four days ago - Motor Lublin won 3-0 at home in the Cup. Before that, Legia Warszawa won 4-0 at home in the Ekstraklasa in May 2026. The two league meetings in 2025 both ended in draws: 1-1 and 3-3. A friendly in 2022 saw Legia win 4-0.

League table positions

Legia Warszawa sit top of the Ekstraklasa with 12 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). They have scored 12 goals and conceded only 4. Motor Lublin are not in the top 12 shown in the standings data, which suggests they are lower in the table. Legia's away record is solid: 1 win and 2 draws from 3 road games, with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded.

Win probability: Motor Lublin or Legia Warszawa?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Legia Warszawa has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Motor Lublin has a 20% chance. The odds imply Legia are favorites but the high draw probability reflects their recent run of stalemates and Motor Lublin's home win in the Cup. Legia's unbeaten league record and top spot give them the edge.

Odds and match prediction

The best pre-match odds available show Motor Lublin at 3.90, the draw at 3.75, and Legia Warszawa at 2.20. Other bookmakers offer similar prices, with the home win around 3.40-3.75, the draw around 2.25-2.30, and the away win around 2.20-2.40. The bookmakers see Legia Warszawa as the favorite. Our Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa prediction is an away win, but the draw is a real possibility given Legia's three draws in their last five matches. Betting tips: the under 2.5 goals market could be worth a look, as Legia's away games average under two goals.