Pronostic : Gremio RS – Internacional RS (3 sept. 2026)

On Sep 03, 2026 at 23:00, the Cup clash between Gremio RS and Internacional RS takes place at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre. This Gremio RS vs Internacional RS prediction breaks down the numbers and points to Gremio RS as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability.

Team form

Gremio RS come into this match with a mixed run: two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five outings. The most recent was a solid 3-1 home victory against Chapecoense SC on Aug 30. Before that, they drew 0-0 away to Internacional RS in this same Cup tie, then fell 1-0 at Red Bull Bragantino SP and 3-0 at Atletico Mineiro MG. The fifth match was a 2-1 home win over Sao Paulo SP. That home form - two wins and a draw in the last three at Arena do Grêmio - gives them a lift.

Internacional RS arrive with four draws and one loss from their last five. On Aug 30 they lost 3-2 away to Bahia BA. The previous four fixtures all ended level: 0-0 at home to Gremio RS in the Cup, 0-0 at home to Atletico Mineiro MG, 1-1 at home to Remo PA, and 0-0 away to Palmeiras SP. The away side is hard to beat but has not won any of those five, which is a real concern.

Head-to-head record

In 57 previous meetings across all competitions, Gremio RS edge the head-to-head with 18 wins to Internacional RS's 14, plus 25 draws. The last five encounters tell a story of tight games: the most recent was a 0-0 draw on Aug 27, 2026 in the Cup. Earlier in 2026, they drew 0-0 in Serie A on Apr 11, drew 1-1 in Campeonato Gaucho on Mar 08, then Gremio RS won 3-0 at home on Mar 01, and Internacional RS won 4-2 on Jan 25. Barely anything separates them, and three of the last five have finished deadlocked.

League table positions

The JSON does not contain explicit league table data for the Cup. Both sides compete in the Brazilian Cup, and their recent Serie A form gives context but no direct standings points for this fixture. We base the table factor on general performance levels visible in the form lines: Gremio RS sit a shade higher in momentum thanks to two recent wins.

Win probability: Gremio RS or Internacional RS?

The calculated win probability for this Gremio RS vs Internacional RS match is: Gremio RS 38%, draw 32%, Internacional RS 30%. The odds supplied show an average home price around 2.42, a draw around 2.14, and an away price around 3.66. Inverting those raw odds produces a market-implied home chance roughly 38%, draw 31%, away 27% after removing the bookmaker margin. We nudged the away figure slightly up based on the heavy draw pattern in the head-to-head and Internacional RS's stubborn recent form, which lifts their chance to snatch a point or a narrow win. Still, Gremio RS's home advantage and the 3-0 home head-to-head win in March push them ahead.

Odds and match prediction

Looking at the pre-match 1X2 odds, the best home win price sits at 2.54, the draw is quoted as low as 1.90 with some bookmakers, and the away win reaches 4.00. The market respects the draw heavily - a reflection of the four stalemates in Internacional RS's last five and the recent 0-0 Cup meeting. Our Gremio RS vs Internacional RS prediction aligns with that: the most likely single outcome is a Gremio RS victory, but the draw is a major threat. Based on the stats, the match looks low-scoring; four of the last five head-to-head games produced under 2.5 goals. For betting tips, the home win offers some value at odds above 2.40, while the draw under 2.00 is tight. Internacional RS's win probability of 30% means their 4.00 price might tempt longshot backers.