Pronostic : JK Nomme Kalju 2 – Flora Tallinn II (10 sept. 2026)

The JK Nomme Kalju 2 vs Flora Tallinn II prediction for September 10, 2026 gives the away side a clear edge. This Esiliiga match kicks off at 14:30, and Flora Tallinn II comes into it as the favorite with a 55% win probability. The home team has struggled badly in recent weeks, while the visitors have shown more quality and consistency.

Team form

JK Nomme Kalju 2 is in poor shape. They have lost four of their last five matches, with the only win coming away at FC Tallinn on August 29. In their most recent outing, they fell 1-0 at Elva on September 6. The defense has been a major problem - they conceded 10 goals in those four defeats, including a 4-2 home loss to Tartu JK Welco Elekter and a 3-0 home loss to Tallinna Kalev.

Flora Tallinn II's form is mixed but better than their hosts. Their last five results read L, W, D, W, L. The 6-2 defeat at Levadia Tallinn II on September 4 was a blow, but before that they thrashed Tallinna Kalev 5-0 at home and beat Viimsi MRJK 2-1. They have scored 10 goals in their last five games, which shows they carry a real attacking threat.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these two sides favors Flora Tallinn II. In the last seven meetings, Flora Tallinn II has won four times, JK Nomme Kalju 2 has won three times, and there have been no draws. The most recent clash was on August 10, 2026, when Flora Tallinn II won 3-0 at home. Earlier in the season, on July 25, Flora Tallinn II also won 5-0 away at JK Nomme Kalju 2. The home team's last win in this fixture was a 3-0 victory back in September 2025.

League table positions

The league table tells a clear story. Flora Tallinn II sits 3rd in the Esiliiga with 44 points from 27 matches, having scored 64 goals and conceded 48. JK Nomme Kalju 2 is 10th - bottom of the table - with just 22 points from 27 games, 35 goals scored and 68 conceded. The gap between the two teams is 22 points. On the road, Flora Tallinn II has the 3rd-best away record in the league with 19 points from 14 away matches. JK Nomme Kalju 2 does not appear in the top 8 of the home standings, which underlines their struggles at their own ground.

Win probability: JK Nomme Kalju 2 or Flora Tallinn II?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Flora Tallinn II has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and JK Nomme Kalju 2 has a 20% chance. The bookmakers' odds (1.70 for an away win) imply a similar probability once the margin is removed. Flora Tallinn II's superior league position, better recent results, and dominant head-to-head record in 2026 all point toward an away victory. JK Nomme Kalju 2's poor defensive record - 68 goals conceded in 27 games - makes it hard to see them keeping a clean sheet.

Odds and match prediction

The pre-match odds for this fixture are: home win 3.35, draw 4.25, away win 1.70. The bookmakers clearly see Flora Tallinn II as the favorite, which matches our JK Nomme Kalju 2 vs Flora Tallinn II prediction. The odds suggest a low-scoring away win is the most likely outcome, but Flora Tallinn II's recent 5-0 and 3-0 wins in this head-to-head series hint that a more comfortable margin is possible. Based on the stats, the best betting tip is to back Flora Tallinn II to win. The total goals market could also be worth a look given both teams' recent scorelines.