Pronostic : FarDu Fergana – Aral Samali PFK (7 sept. 2026)

The FarDu Fergana vs Aral Samali PFK prediction for September 7, 2026 gives the edge to the league leaders. This Pro League match kicks off at 11:00, and Aral Samali PFK arrives as the favorite with a 45% win probability. FarDu Fergana has a 30% chance, and the draw sits at 25%.

Team form

FarDu Fergana comes into this match in excellent shape. They are unbeaten in five, with four wins and one draw. Their last outing was a 1-0 away win at Gazalkent on August 28. Before that, they beat Shurtan Guzar 3-1 at home and hammered both Pakhtakor Tashkent II and PFC Terdu 5-1. The only slip was a 0-0 draw at Jayhun Nukus. At home, FarDu Fergana has been a force - six wins and two draws from eight matches, with 24 goals scored.

Aral Samali PFK also shows strong recent form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five. They beat Kattaqorgon 1-0 at home on August 27 and edged Metallurg Bekabad 1-0 earlier in August. A 2-1 defeat at Olimpik Mobiuz on August 20 is the only blemish. On the road, Aral Samali PFK has four wins, three draws, and just one loss, scoring 14 and conceding only seven.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Aral Samali PFK. In four previous meetings, Aral Samali PFK has won three and drawn one. FarDu Fergana has never beaten them. The most recent clash, on October 27, 2025, ended 1-1 in Fergana. Before that, Aral Samali PFK won 2-0 at home in August 2025, 1-0 away in June 2025, and 2-0 at home in April 2025. FarDu Fergana has managed just one goal in those four matches.

League table positions

Aral Samali PFK sits top of the Pro League with 42 points from 17 matches - 13 wins, three draws, and only one loss. They have scored 34 goals and conceded just 10. FarDu Fergana is fifth with 32 points from 17 games, nine wins, five draws, and three defeats. The 10-point gap reflects the difference in consistency. Away from home, Aral Samali PFK is fifth in the away table with 15 points from eight trips. FarDu Fergana's home record is second-best in the league - 20 points from eight matches, unbeaten with 24 goals scored.

Win probability: FarDu Fergana or Aral Samali PFK?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Aral Samali PFK has a 45% chance to win, FarDu Fergana has a 30% chance, and the draw has a 25% chance. The bookmakers' prices (best home 3.00, draw 3.25, away 2.52) imply a tight contest, but Aral Samali PFK's dominance in past meetings and their top spot in the table tilt the percentages in their favor. FarDu Fergana's strong home form keeps them in the fight, but the head-to-head record is a major factor.

Odds and match prediction

The pre-match odds for this fixture show a close market. One bookmaker offers 3.00 for a FarDu Fergana win, 2.25 for the draw, and 3.10 for an Aral Samali PFK victory. Another lists 2.40 for the home side, 3.25 for the draw, and 2.52 for the away win. The bookmakers see Aral Samali PFK as the slight favorite, which matches our FarDu Fergana vs Aral Samali PFK prediction. Given the head-to-head record and league standings, the away win looks the most likely outcome, but FarDu Fergana's home strength means a draw is a real possibility. Our betting tip: back Aral Samali PFK to win or the draw no bet market for safety.