Pronostic : Criciuma SC – Cuiaba MT (4 sept. 2026)

The Criciuma SC vs Cuiaba MT prediction for September 4, 2026 is here. The match kicks off at 22:30 in Brazil's Serie B, and Criciuma SC is the favorite with a 53% win probability based on the odds and recent form. The draw sits at 25% and a Cuiaba MT away win at 22%. This is a key fixture between two clubs fighting for promotion positions.

Team form – Criciuma SC vs Cuiaba MT

Criciuma SC comes into this game with mixed results. Their last five matches produced two losses, one draw and one win, with a recent 1-2 loss away to CRB AL on August 30. Before that they lost 0-2 at home to Fortaleza CE and drew 1-1 away at Botafogo SP. A 1-0 home win over Goias GO on August 15 is the single bright spot in a run of L-L-D-W-L.

Cuiaba MT looks more stable. They are unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws – W-D-W-W-D. Their latest result was a 2-1 away win at Botafogo SP on August 29. They also beat Operario PR 1-0 at home and thrashed Ceara CE 3-1 away. The two draws came against Goias GO (1-1) and Fortaleza CE (1-1). The away team clearly carries better momentum into this Criciuma SC vs Cuiaba MT clash.

Head-to-head record

These sides have met four times in recent Serie B history. Cuiaba MT leads the head-to-head with 2 wins, while Criciuma SC has 1 win and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter was on May 2, 2026, when Cuiaba MT hosted Criciuma SC and it ended 1-1. Before that, Cuiaba won 1-0 at home in November 2025, and Criciuma won 1-0 at home in July 2025. The oldest meeting, from April 2019, also went Cuiaba's way with a 1-0 away victory. The overall goal count is low in these games, with only four total goals across four matches.

League table positions

Criciuma SC sits third in the Serie B overall table with 44 points from 25 matches (12 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses). They have scored 26 and conceded 19. At home they are strong: 4th in the home table with 25 points from 12 games, only one home loss, and a solid 13-6 goal difference.

Cuiaba MT is 11th overall with 36 points (8 wins, 12 draws, 5 losses), scoring 23 and conceding 19. Their away form is decent – 6th in the away standings with 17 points from 12 trips (4 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). The gap is eight points in Criciuma's favor, and the home advantage further tilts this Criciuma SC vs Cuiaba MT prediction toward the hosts.

Win probability: Criciuma SC or Cuiaba MT?

Based on the pre-match odds, form, head-to-head record and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Criciuma SC 53%, draw 25%, Cuiaba MT 22%. The odds imply a home win is the most likely result, but Cuiaba's unbeaten run and their positive head-to-head record keep the draw and away win chances respectable. Criciuma's strong home record and higher table position are the main factors pushing their probability above 50 percent.

Odds and match prediction

The pre-match 1X2 odds show Criciuma SC as the clear favorite. The best home win price is 1.94, the draw is offered around 3.22, and an away win for Cuiaba MT can be backed as high as 5.00. Other bookmakers have the home win as low as 1.80. The market firmly points to a home victory in this Criciuma SC vs Cuiaba MT prediction.

Our betting tips take the stats into account: Criciuma should edge it, but with Cuiaba's resilient form, a low-scoring game looks likely. The final prediction is a home win, and the under 2.5 goals market could also interest bettors given the tight head-to-head history.