Pronostic : Coritiba PR – Mirassol SP (6 sept. 2026)

The Coritiba PR vs Mirassol SP prediction points to a home win when these two Brazilian Serie A sides meet on Sep 06, 2026 at 14:00 at Estádio Couto Pereira in Curitiba. Based on the odds, form and head-to-head record, Coritiba PR has a 52% chance of winning, the draw sits at 28%, and Mirassol SP has a 20% chance.

Team form

Coritiba PR come into this match with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five outings. They beat Remo PA 3-2 away, Corinthians SP 2-1 at home, and Chapecoense SC 2-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Sao Paulo SP, and lost 0-1 at home to Cruzeiro MG. That is a solid run with 10 points from 15 available.

Mirassol SP have struggled for victories recently. Their last five results show four draws and one heavy defeat: 1-1 at home against Palmeiras SP, 1-1 at Santos SP, 0-0 at LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores, a 1-5 home loss to Flamengo RJ, and another 1-1 draw at home to LDU Quito. The away side has not won any of those five matches.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is perfectly balanced at one win each. The most recent meeting was on Mar 18, 2026 in Serie A, when Coritiba PR won 1-0 away at Mirassol SP. The older clash was a 4-1 home win for Mirassol SP in Serie B back on Nov 06, 2024. No draws have been recorded yet in this fixture.

League table positions

Coritiba PR sit 7th in the overall Serie A standings with 37 points from 25 matches (10 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses, 33 goals scored and 33 conceded). At home they have been strong, ranking 4th in the away table with 19 points from 13 road games, which actually shows their away form - the home-only table is not listed for Coritiba PR, but their recent home results include wins over Corinthians SP and Chapecoense SC.

Mirassol SP are not visible in the top 12 of the overall, home or away standings provided, which suggests they are lower down the table and struggling for points compared to their hosts. That gap in the league positions strengthens the case for a Coritiba PR win.

Win probability: Coritiba PR or Mirassol SP?

We calculate the win probability from the available odds and stats. The bookmakers' best prices average around home 2.20, draw 2.05, away 3.50. After removing the margin and normalizing, the raw implied chances are roughly 43% for a Coritiba PR win, 34% for the draw, and 23% for Mirassol SP. We adjust that using form and head-to-head: Coritiba PR's recent W-W-D-W-L run, the 1-0 away win in the last head-to-head, and the home advantage push their real chance higher. The final probabilities are Coritiba PR win 52%, draw 28%, Mirassol SP win 20%. Coritiba PR are the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds and match prediction

The available odds for this match show Coritiba PR priced between 1.96 and 2.25 for a home win, the draw between 1.95 and 3.30, and Mirassol SP between 3.30 and 3.80. Bookmakers see this as a tight encounter but give the edge to the home team. Our Coritiba PR vs Mirassol SP prediction is a home win. With Coritiba PR's better recent form, the last head-to-head victory, and Mirassol SP's five-match winless streak, the value sits with the home side. The betting tip is to back Coritiba PR to win, but the draw odds around 2.05 also reflect the visitors' habit of sharing the points lately.