Pronostic : Gremio Novorizontino SP – Avai SC (5 sept. 2026)

Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Avai SC prediction for this Serie B match on September 5, 2026 at 19:00 local time. Based on the odds, form and head-to-head record, Gremio Novorizontino SP is the clear favorite with a 58% win probability.

Team form

Gremio Novorizontino SP comes into this game with strong recent results. In their last five matches they have three wins, one draw and one loss: a 2-1 home win over Sport Recife PE, a 4-1 away win against Athletic Club MG, a 3-0 home win over America Mineiro MG, a 0-0 away draw at CRB AL, and a 0-1 home loss to Juventude RS. That form shows they score well, especially at home.

Avai SC also has a decent run of form ahead of this fixture. Their last five results show three wins and two losses: a 0-1 home loss to Atletico Goianiense GO, a 0-2 away win at Ponte Preta SP, a 2-1 home win over Sport Recife PE, a 1-2 away win at Operario PR, and a 0-1 home loss to CRB AL. They have been strong on the road recently but inconsistent at home.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is very balanced. Over the last five meetings, each side has won once and there have been three draws. The most recent match was on May 3, 2026, ending in a 3-3 draw. The previous two encounters, both in 2025, also ended level at 1-1. Gremio Novorizontino SP won 2-0 at home in May 2023, while Avai SC took a 1-0 home win in September 2023. The history clearly points towards tight contests.

League table positions

In the overall Serie B standings, Gremio Novorizontino SP sits in 4th place with 43 points from 25 matches (12 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses). They have scored 41 goals and conceded only 22. Avai SC is not shown in the top 12 of the provided table, which puts them lower in the league. That gap in table position gives a further advantage to the home side.

Looking at the home and away splits, Gremio Novorizontino SP ranks 5th in the home table with 23 points from 12 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Their away form is also strong - they are 2nd in the away table with 20 points from 13 matches. No specific away ranking for Avai SC is available from the data.

Win probability: Gremio Novorizontino SP or Avai SC?

After analyzing all the available stats, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Gremio Novorizontino SP has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Avai SC has a 17% chance. These numbers are based mainly on the pre-match odds, adjusted for the home team's superior league position and recent scoring form. The head-to-head draws reduce Avai's chance slightly, while the home advantage lifts the favorite.

Odds and match prediction

The bookmakers agree that Gremio Novorizontino SP is the favorite. The best pre-match odds for this Serie B match show home win prices around 1.45, a draw around 2.25 to 2.30, and an Avai SC away win up to 6.50. These odds reflect a strong confidence in the home side.

Our Gremio Novorizontino SP vs Avai SC prediction: the stats point to a home win as the most likely outcome. Gremio Novorizontino SP's higher league position, better home record and recent scoring form give them a clear edge. A draw cannot be ruled out, given the three draws in the last five head-to-head meetings, but a home victory is the smart betting tip based on the current odds and form.