Pronostic : Al Sadd Doha – Al Gharafa (5 sept. 2026)

The Al Sadd Doha vs Al Gharafa prediction points to a home win when these two sides meet in the Stars League on Sep 05, 2026 at 16:15. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Al Sadd Doha has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Al Gharafa has a 13% chance.

Team form

Al Sadd Doha come into this match in excellent shape. Their last five results show four wins and one draw. They beat Al Gharafa 2-1 in the Stars Cup on Sep 01, smashed Qatar SC 6-2 away in the Stars League, and saw off Al Ahli Doha 3-1 at home. A 2-0 friendly win over MC Alger and a 1-1 draw with Aris Limassol complete the picture.

Al Gharafa's form is much weaker. They have lost three of their last five, with one win and one draw. The 2-1 loss to Al Sadd Doha on Sep 01 was followed by a 3-1 defeat at home to Al Shamal in the Stars League. A 2-1 home win over Al Shahaniya is their only bright spot, alongside a 2-2 friendly draw with Al Riyadh and a 2-1 loss to STK 1914 Samorin.

Head-to-head record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Al Sadd Doha. In 27 previous meetings, Al Sadd Doha have won 19, Al Gharafa have won just 2, and 6 matches ended in a draw. The last five matches tell the same story: Al Sadd Doha won 2-1 in the Stars Cup on Sep 01, 2026, Al Gharafa won 4-1 in the Stars Cup on May 09, 2026, Al Sadd Doha won 3-1 in the Stars League on Jan 31, 2026, Al Sadd Doha won 2-0 in the Stars League on Aug 28, 2025, and Al Sadd Doha won 4-0 in the Stars League on Feb 27, 2025. Al Sadd Doha have won four of the last five head-to-head matches.

League table positions

Al Sadd Doha sit top of the Stars League overall table with 6 points from 2 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 3. Al Gharafa are 8th with 3 points from 2 games, scoring 3 and conceding 4. At home, Al Sadd Doha have 3 points from 1 match, while Al Gharafa have 3 points from 2 away games. The gap in quality and early-season momentum is clear.

Win probability: Al Sadd Doha or Al Gharafa?

We calculate the win probability for this match using the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions. The bookmakers' best price for a home win is 1.50, the draw is 2.80, and an away win is 4.50. After removing the bookmaker margin and adjusting for Al Sadd Doha's dominant head-to-head record (19 wins in 27) and their perfect league start, the probabilities are: Al Sadd Doha win 65%, draw 22%, Al Gharafa win 13%. Al Sadd Doha are the clear favorite to win this match.

Odds and match prediction

The odds for this Stars League match show Al Sadd Doha as the strong favorite. The best home win price is 1.50, the draw is 2.80, and an Al Gharafa away win is 4.50. Other bookmakers offer similar prices, with the home win as low as 1.39. Based on the stats, the Al Sadd Doha vs Al Gharafa prediction is a home win. The bookmakers see Al Sadd Doha as the likely winner, and the form and head-to-head data back that up. For betting tips, a home win looks the safest option, but the odds are short.